Purpose
This is a framework for readers who want real upside without turning investing into a full time job. It is built for patient accumulation, long horizons, and asymmetric setups.
Who is it for
- You’re already in index funds and want a focused upside portfolio
- You can hold through volatility if the thesis stays intact
- You want a small number of positions you actually understand
Core ideas
- Mispriced narratives create opportunity
- Stage 1 bases give time to accumulate
- Stage 2 breakouts confirm recognition
- Survivability matters more than speed
- Time is an edge when downside is defined
The portfolio
Think of this as a separate sleeve next to your index funds. It should be sized to your risk tolerance and your ability to hold through drawdowns, somewhere between 5-20% of your total net investments. It should feel manageable, even when the tape is noisy. It should let you sleep.
Sizing rules
- Start small and earn size over time
- Keep positions sized so you can stay rational
- Avoid concentration that changes your behavior
What breaks the thesis
- The base fails and trend breaks down
- Margins compress with no path back
- The recognition mechanism disappears
The payoff mindset
You want a small, defined loss if you are wrong and a meaningful payoff if you are right. The goal is to be early, patient, and still in the game when the market wakes up.